U.S. Could See Hiring ‘Heat Wave’ in May

5/7/2010

By Theresa Minton-Eversole

More unemployed Americans might have a better chance of finding a job this coming summer than in the summer of 2009 if May 2010's expected hiring "spring fling" is any indication. May 2010 hiring activity in the manufacturing and service sectors could reach levels not seen in three years, according to the Society for Human Resource Management’s (SHRM) Leading Indicators of National Employment (LINE) survey report released May 7, 2010.

Signs are growing more positive this month, with LINE employment expectations indices for both sectors at levels not seen since 2007,” said Jennifer Schramm, SHRM manager of workplace trends and forecasting. “The percentage of manufacturing companies that are hiring is the highest since October 2007; in the service sector, since June 2007.”

Good workers are getting slightly harder to find, too, with more employers in April 2010 reporting a higher level of difficulty with landing top-level talent than in 2009. In addition, new-hire compensation continues to increase. For the third consecutive month, the rate of new-hire compensation in April 2010 rose on an annual basis in both sectors.

The LINE Employment Report examines four key areas: employers’ hiring expectations, new-hire compensation, difficulty in recruiting top-level talent and job vacancies. It is based on a monthly survey of private sector human resource professionals at more than 500 manufacturing and 500 service sector companies. Together, these two sectors employ more than 90 percent of the nation’s private sector workers.

EMPLOYMENT EXPECTATIONS	Manufacturing	Service
In May, for the seventh straight month, hiring will increase in manufacturing and services on an annual basis.	+48.7	+37.0
RECRUITING DIFFICULTY	Manufacturing	Service
In April, the index for recruiting difficulty rose in both sectors compared with a year ago.	+18.9	+14.2
NEW-HIRE COMPENSATION	Manufacturing	Service
The rate of increase for new-hire compensation in April rose on an annual basis in both sectors.	+7.2	+10.9

Source: SHRM Leading Indicators of NationalEmployment(LINE), www.shrm.org/line.

Employment Expectations

Despite problems in the labor market, hiring looks much better in May 2010 than in recent months. The manufacturing index improved by a net of 48.7 points, which means a net 43.9 percent of companies will hire in May 2010, compared with 4.8 percent that conducted layoffs in May 2009.

The service sector hiring index rose for May by a net 37.0 points; a net 54.4 percent of respondents will add jobs in May 2010, compared with a net 17.4 percent that added jobs during May 2009. Even with the positive numbers, the unemployment rate is expected to remain elevated throughout 2010. The sharp rise in the LINE hiring indices is also a reflection of poor job market conditions from a year ago.

Exempt, Nonexempt Vacancies

LINE statistics cover exempt (salaried) and nonexempt (hourly) vacancies. Changes in the number of job vacancies can be one of the earliest indicators of a shift in the balance between labor supply and demand.

In the manufacturing sector, a net total of 18.7 percent of respondents reported increases in exempt vacancies in April 2010 (24.5 percent reported increases, 5.8 percent reported decreases). This represents a 22.2-point increase from April 2009 and the ninth consecutive month that exempt vacancies are higher than those of the same month the previous year.

A net total of 23.7 percent of manufacturing respondents reported that nonexempt vacancies increased in April 2010 (31.9 percent increased, 8.2 percent decreased). This represents a 28.6-point increase from April 2009.

In accordance with federal data, this suggests that manufacturers are adding jobs slowly and that demand for production is improving.

In the service sector, a net total of 16.6 percent of respondents reported increases in exempt vacancies in April 2010 (25.9 percent reported increases, 9.3 percent reported decreases). That is a 28.6-point increase from April 2009 and the ninth consecutive month that exempt vacancies are higher than the previous year.

For nonexempt service positions, a net total of 29.1 percent reported increased vacancies in April 2010 (36.9 percent increased, 7.8 percent decreased). This marked a 31.0-point increase from April 2009. Increased demand for positions in the service sector might be driven in part by the health care industry, which added 27,000 jobs in March 2010, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

New-Hire Compensation

The continuing high rate of unemployment and a large pool of job seekers in the market have given many companies the option of reducing the wages and benefits they are offering new hires in an effort to control costs. But the LINE statistics show that new-hire compensation continues to increase incrementally, noted Schramm.

“April marked the third consecutive month where new-hire compensation rates were up on a year-over-year basis,” she said.

In the manufacturing sector, a net total of 4.9 percent of respondents said they would increase new-hire compensation in April 2010 (6.1 percent increased, 1.2 percent decreased). That is an increase of 7.2 points from April 2009.

In the service sector, however, a net total of 1.3 percent of companies decreased new-hire compensation in April 2010 (3.4 percent increased, 4.7 percent decreased). That still represents a net increase of 10.9 points from April 2009, when a net of 12.2 percent of service companies decreased new-hire compensation.

The low rates of change in the two sectors indicate that most organizations are keeping new-hire compensation rates flat and that people landing new jobs are continuing to accept lower wages and benefits as the labor market remains weak.

Recruiting Difficulty

LINE’s recruiting difficulty index measures how hard it is for firms to recruit candidates to fill the positions of greatest strategic importance to their companies. Even though small numbers of respondents are having a harder time finding top talent, the level of difficulty has risen compared with a year earlier.

For example, in the manufacturing sector, a net of 0.9 percent of respondents had less difficulty with recruiting in April 2010 (8.8 percent reported more difficulty, 9.7 percent reported less difficulty). This is still a sharp net increase of 18.9 points from April 2009, when a net of 19.8 percent reported less difficulty with recruiting.

In the service sector, a net of 6.5 percent of companies had less difficulty recruiting in April 2010 (10.4 percent had more difficulty, 16.9 percent had less difficulty). This was a modest increase of 14.2 points from April 2009, when a net total of 20.7 percent of companies had less difficulty with finding top talent.

“Improved hiring is likely what’s behind the slight rise in the LINE recruiting difficulty index,” said Schramm. “More employers [are] reporting difficulty filling their “A positions” compared to this time one year ago.”

LINE: April Hiring Should Reflect Recent Economic Improvements

4/2/2010

By Theresa Minton-Eversole

Buoyed by incremental improvements in the U.S. economy, manufacturing and service-sector companies will hire more workers in April 2010 compared with a year earlier, according to the latest Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM) Leading Indicators of National Employment (LINE) survey. Although these hiring trends are positive, they are an indication of just how poor hiring conditions were in 2009.

Hiring is up on an annual basis for the sixth month in a row. In April 2010, the percentage of manufacturing companies that expect to hire will reach a level not seen since June 2008. In the service sector, the percentage of companies that expect to hire is the highest since July 2008.

In addition, recruiting difficulty continues to increase, according to the survey results, with more employers reporting difficulty landing top-level talent in March 2010 compared to March 2009.

New-hire compensation also rose slightly in March 2010. For the second consecutive month, the rate of new-hire compensation rose on an annual basis in both sectors.

The LINE Employment Report examines four key areas: employers’ hiring expectations, difficulty in recruiting top-level talent, new-hire compensation and job vacancies. It is based on a monthly survey of private-sector human resource professionals at more than 500 manufacturing and 500 service-sector companies. Together, these two sectors employ more than 90 percent of the nation’s private-sector workers.

Employment Expectations	Manufacturing	Service
For the sixth straight month, hiring will increase in April 2010 in both manufacturing and services on an annual basis.	+52.4	+42.9
Recruiting Difficulty
In March, the index for recruiting difficulty rose in both sectors compared with a year ago.	+19.0	+26.6
New-Hire Compensation
The rate of increase for new-hire compensation in March rose on an annual basis in both the manufacturing and service sectors.	+2.4	+2.6

Source: SHRM Leading Indicators of National Employment (LINE), www.shrm.org/line

Employment Expectations

In February 2010, employers took 1,570 mass layoff actions involving 155,718 workers, reported the U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics on March 23, 2010. The number of mass layoff events fell by 191 from the prior month, with manufacturing events hitting their lowest levels since August 2007.

Hiring in April 2010 will provide a better picture for job seekers. The manufacturing index improved by a net of 52.4 points (a net of 37.9 percent of companies will hire in April, compared with 14.5 percent that conducted layoffs a year earlier). The service hiring index rose in April 2010 by a net of 42.9 points (a net of 37.4 percent will add jobs, compared with a net of 5.5 percent that conducted layoffs a year earlier).

Even with those positive numbers, the unemployment rate is expected to remain elevated throughout 2010.

“Improved economic factors in the early months of 2010 compared to the dire employment conditions of the same time last year have resulted in increased year-over-year hiring expectations for the sixth month in a row,” said Jennifer Schramm, SHRM’s workplace trends and forecasting manager. “However, even with these increases, the rate of job loss during the worst months of the recession was so high that it will take many months and even years of sustained job growth to bring unemployment down significantly.”

Still, April 2010 marks the tenth straight month that more companies will hire rather than cut jobs in manufacturing (48.3 percent will hire, 10.4 percent will eliminate jobs), and it is the 12th straight month this has occurred in the service sector (46.5 percent will add jobs, 9.1 percent will cut jobs).

Recruiting Difficulty

“More employers are also reporting increased difficulty filling the jobs of most strategic importance in March compared to the same month one year ago,” Schramm said. LINE’s recruiting difficulty index measures how difficult it is for firms to recruit candidates to fill the positions of greatest strategic importance to their companies.

For the 13th consecutive month in March 2010, this index recorded single-digit response levels for those reporting increased difficulty with recruiting. In the manufacturing sector, a net of 2.3 percent of respondents had less difficulty with recruiting (6.6 reported increased difficulty, 8.9 percent reported less difficulty). This is still a sharp net increase of 19 points from March 2009, when a net of 21.3 percent indicated less difficulty with recruiting.

In the service sector, a net of 2.9 percent of companies in March 2010 had increased difficulty recruiting (9.6 percent had more difficulty, 6.7 percent had less difficulty). This was also a substantial increase from March 2009, when a net total of 23.7 percent of companies had less difficulty finding top talent.

New-Hire Compensation

“After a long stretch of decline and for the second month in a row, the LINE new-hire compensation index also increased on an annual basis in both the manufacturing and service sectors,” Schramm noted.

In the manufacturing sector, a net total of 1.1 percent of respondents said they would increase new-hire compensation in March 2010 (2.8 percent said they would increase, 1.7 percent said they would decrease). That is an increase of 2.4 points from March 2009. In the service sector, a net total of 0.4 percent of companies raised new-hire compensation in March 2010 (2.3 percent increased, 1.9 percent decreased). That is a net increase of 2.6 points from March 2009, when a net of 2.2 percent of service companies decreased new-hire compensation.

Bur the overall low rates of change in both sectors indicate that most organizations are keeping new-hire compensation rates flat and that people landing new jobs are continuing to accept low wages and benefits as the labor market remains weak.

Exempt, Nonexempt Position Vacancies

Vacancies for salaried jobs increased in March 2010, according to the LINE report. In the manufacturing sector, a net total of 11.9 percent of respondents reported increases in exempt vacancies in March 2010 (22.8 percent reported increases, 10.9 percent reported decreases). This represents a 20.2 point increase from March 2009 and the eighth consecutive month that exempt vacancies are higher than those of the same month the previous year.

In the service sector, a net total of 12.0 percent of respondents reported increases in exempt vacancies in March 2010 (21.0 percent reported increases, 9.0 percent reported decreases). That is a 23.3 point increase from March 2009 and the eighth consecutive month that exempt vacancies are higher than the previous year.

Vacancies for hourly jobs also rose in March 2010 for both sectors. A net total of 21.3 percent of manufacturing respondents reported that nonexempt vacancies increased in March 2010 (30.4 percent increased, 9.1 percent decreased). This represents a 30.5 point increase from March 2009.

In accordance with federal data, this suggests that manufacturers are adding jobs slowly and that demand for production is improving gradually. Industrial production rose for the eighth consecutive month in February 2010, according to the Federal Reserve.

For nonexempt service positions, a net total of 23.3 percent reported increased vacancies in March 2010 (32.7 percent reported increased vacancies, 9.4 percent reported decreased vacancies). This marked a 31.7 point increase from March 2009. Increased demand for positions in the service sector might be driven partially by the retail industry, which saw its sales rise by 0.3 percent in February 2010, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce.

Business Week's "Fed’s Bullard Says U.S. Is ‘About to Turn the Corner’ on Jobs" Article

"March 22 (Bloomberg) -- James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said the nation’s job market is “about to turn the corner” after the deepest slump since the Great Depression.

“We’re about to turn the corner on jobs,” Bullard said today in an interview with CNBC. “I think we’ll get some good months of jobs reports coming up very, very soon. We’re looking for March to be strong.”

Bullard repeated his view that the central bank’s pledge to keep rates low for an “extended period,” affirmed last week, creates the perception policy makers have a specific date in mind for increasing borrowing costs.

“The extended period language is putting us in a box,” he said. “People are interpreting that as a date certain when we will raise rates.”

The Fed will hold the target rate for overnight loans between banks at its current range of zero to 0.25 percent through the first nine months of the year, according to the survey median. The rate will rise to 0.75 percentage point by the end of the year.

Bullard said he expects a “reasonable” economic recovery, though not a “roaring recovery.”

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said last month the U.S. economy is in a “nascent” recovery that still requires low interest rates to encourage demand by consumers and businesses once federal stimulus fades."

Wellisz, Christopher. Fed’s Bullard Says U.S. Is ‘About to Turn the Corner’ on Jobs. Business Week. 2010 Mar 22 [cited 2010 Mar 22]. Available at http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-03-22/fed-s-bullard-says-u-s-is-about-to-turn-the-corner-on-jobs.html

U.S. Salary Increase Budgets Barely Matching Inflation Survey shows lowest level in 25 years

2/15/2010 By Stephen Miller

With total salary increase budgets in the U.S. barely exceeding inflation, even top performers might be disappointed to discover that their 2010 raises—in many cases following a year of frozen compensation—are only keeping up with cost-of-living increases, according to The Conference Board’s Salary Increase Budgets for 2010—Winter Update report.

Projections for 2010 show that salary increase budgets in the U.S. will be below 3 percent for the first time in more than two decades, and projected 2010 salary structure adjustments for all categories of employees are not expected to top 2 percent—well below the inflation rate (2.6 percent) forecast by The Conference Board, a not-for-profit business research association.

Salary increase budgets—the pool of money that a company dedicates to salary increases for the coming year. It is represented as a percentage of current total base pay.

Salary structure adjustments—the changes (usually annual) to the salary structure of a compensation program. Organizations make these adjustments to the minimum, midpoints and maximums of their pay ranges to account for changes in the cost of living generally, and to changes in the salary markets within their industry.

“Compensation professionals usually make sure that the salary structures move in lock step with inflation in order to ensure that structures represent market rate for jobs,” says John Gibbons, human capital program director at The Conference Board. “They budget increases in a particular year to reward great performance, allowing earnings to exceed inflation and move people up through the ranges. Salary ranges also represent employers’ anticipation of what the job market will require. Projections of near zero percent in real terms mean that employers are making the assumption that the salary market is simply not going to move up, regardless of increases in the cost of living.”

“U.S. workers will continue to face downward pressure on their salaries and wages,” predicts Linda Barrington, the association’s human capital managing director and co-author of the report. “Without the purse strings loosening on financial rewards, employers are going to have to rely on other ways of engaging employees—especially top performers—in order to keep their companies competitive.”

Historical Low

The revised median forecast of salary increase budgets for 2010 stands at 2.8 percent for all U.S. employee groups except executives (2.75 percent). This is the lowest level in the 25-year history of The Conference Board survey.

This historical low is consistent with historically low growth in government compensation measures. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Employment Cost Index, total compensation in 2009 grew by 1.5 percent while consumer prices rose by 2.7 percent—meaning that, adjusted for inflation, total compensation fell by almost 1.3 percent. The Employment Cost Index’s increase is the lowest since the BLS survey began in 1982; prior to the 2009 recession, the 12-month change never fell below 2.7 percent.

------------------------------------------------
Adjusted for inflation, total compensation
fell by almost 1.3 percent in 2009.
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“Despite five months of improvement in The Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index suggesting that a turning point in job growth is on the horizon, recovery in compensation is probably a few years away,” says Gad Levanon, associate director for macroeconomic research at The Conference Board. “In the previous three recessions, compensation began accelerating only several years after employment bottomed. High levels of unemployment allow businesses to limit raise demands from existing workers and hire workers from unemployment at lower compensation levels.”

Expectations Revised Downward

The Conference Board’s Annual Salary Increase Budgets Survey, conducted in November 2009 among 285 U.S. organizations, represents a sharp drop from the 3 percent median forecasted for salary increase budgets in April 2009. More than a quarter of respondents (27.7 percent) said they had already changed their originally projected total increase budget for 2010. The median projected total salary increase budget for this group, 2.5 percent, is lower than that of respondents overall. Compared with their original median projected increase budget, the current median projected 2010 salary increase budget for these respondents is 0.5 percentage point lower than what they report as their original forecast for 2010.

The highest forecasted median salary increase budgets for 2010 are in consulting services—3 percent for all employee groups except nonexempt hourly, which stands at 2.85 percent. The second highest projections are reported in the trade sector, with all employee groups at 3 percent except nonexempt hourly (2.5 percent). The lowest 2010 increase budgets are in the banking industry (2 percent).

Bonus Budgets Slightly Higher

For merit increase budgets forecast for 2010, the median is 2.5 percent in each employee category for all industries. This compares to lower 2009 medians of 2.1 percent for nonexempt hourly, 2.38 percent for nonexempt salaried and 2 percent for exempt employees.

The median merit increase budget for executives in 2009 was zero. The highest median projected merit increase budgets for executives are in energy/agriculture, manufacturing and trade, at 3 percent.

HR Goes Green!

From Mediapost.com, this article was posted today to highlight the impact that green efforts make on attracting, hiring and retaining new employees. Beyond Green PR: Green HR

by Greg Menken

With the rise of green consumers, many businesses have turned their attention to communicating their eco-virtues to these customers. However, as companies vie for "greenness" among external stakeholders, they must not forget their most important audience -- their own employees. It is well known that happy employees make for happy customers, because satisfied workers turn out the best product. Companies compete on many factors to attract and retain employees, from salary, benefits, vacation, culture, etc. Today, the eco-friendliness of employers is increasingly impacting job satisfaction and employee recruitment. More than ever, current and prospective employees are placing greater emphasis on how green their employers are, and companies that respond to this trend stand to attract and retain the best talent. According to research by Harris Interactive, 36% of American workers would be more inclined to work for a green company, while 59% believe their companies aren't doing enough to improve environmental performance. Research by the Kenexa Research Institute found that companies supporting sustainability initiatives increase employee engagement levels. These initiatives increase employee pride, overall job satisfaction, and willingness to recommend their employer as a good place to work. Another report from Brockmann and Company shows that companies with sustainability programs have higher customer satisfaction, higher employee satisfaction and higher revenues per employee. Perhaps most importantly, research finds that younger employees are the most eager to work for eco-friendly companies. As our nation's demographics quickly change, companies will come under intense pressure to compete for these younger workers. While the Harris Interactive report showed that 52% of baby boomers would like their employers to be eco-friendly, greater than 67% of Generation Y workers wanted the same. A MonsterTRAK survey showed an astounding 92% of young workers would choose to work for an environmentally responsible company. As baby boomers phase out of the workplace, more and more workers will seek out green employers, giving these companies a competitive hiring advantage over their non-green competitors. Moreover, the Harris Interactive report showed that nearly a third of workers would be willing to sacrifice salary for the satisfaction of working for a green company. Again, Gen Y workers align much more strongly on this point than baby boomers, with Gen Y workers willing to sacrifice 6.2% of salary, as opposed to only 2.5% for baby boomers. This evidence makes it clear that companies must take their green marketing beyond their external audience and engage their own employees and potential employees. By extending green marketing beyond PR and into HR (human resources), companies will attract better staff, achieve greater worker satisfaction, and increase profitability. To do so, companies must implement strategic communications plans for their HR audience, just as they would for customers. Effective worker-oriented green communications plans must provide clear direction, explain the personal stake each employee has in the program, make employees part of the process, and establish recognizable goals that can be rewarded. By targeting workers with a green message, a business will attain the highest possible level of engagement among staff, earn a reputation as a green (and great) place to work, and achieve the strongest competitive position when recruiting the next generation of talent.

Where the Job Market Will Open Up

If your interested in finding the most qualified professionals for upcoming opportunities at your company, check out O'Donnell Staffing Research's recruitment services and how they benefit you and your business.

Check out the article below about potential employment openings.

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Where the Job Market Will Open Up

Worrying about competition for talent probably isn’t your biggest concern right now. But it’s coming, especially in some industries and for some job titles.

The U.S. Labor Department released its report on 10-year projections for job and industry growth. Here’s what’s in the report.

First, as just about everyone knows, the manufacturing sector will continue to drop, even after a loss of about two million jobs in the sector over the last year, and they are unlikely to return.

Total employment is expected to rise in the next 10 years by 15.3 million, or 10.1%. That’s better than the 7.4% increase in the most recent 10-year period, but the numbers can be deceiving, since the recession dragged down the numbers so badly in the most recent 10-year period. Plus, we’re starting a low point in employment, so there’s a lot of room for growth.

Construction. The number of jobs will rise by 1.3 million, but even with the increase, there will be a percentage decrease when compared with the job market as a whole.

The service sector. Expect 96% of job growth to come out of this sector in the next 10 years — in particular in professional and business services, and health care and social assistance. Jobs in health care, which grew even during the recession, will skyrocket.

Which positions will see the most growth? The Labor Department projects increases of:

• 72% for biomedical engineers
• 53% for systems and data analysts
• 50% for home health aides
• 41% for financial examiner

To view the article by J. Giuliano at HR Morning click here.

LINE Confirms that Job Recovery Will Be Slow

12/4/2009

By Theresa Minton-Eversole

December hiring in manufacturing and services will surpass levels reached one year ago, according to the December 2009 Leading Indicators of National Employment (LINE) survey released Dec. 4, 2009, by the Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM). But the positive signs are less a nod to a long-awaited economic recovery than they are a reflection of how poor the job market conditions were in 2008.

The LINE Employment Report examines four key areas: employers’ hiring expectations, new-hire compensation, difficulty in recruiting top-level talent and job vacancies. It is based on a monthly survey of private-sector human resource professionals at more than 500 manufacturing and 500 service-sector companies. Together these sectors employ more than 90 percent of the nation’s private-sector workers.

Employment Expectations, Job Vacancies Increase

The December employment expectations index is positive in both sectors. In the manufacturing sector, a net total of 10.7 percent of respondents will add jobs in December (28.2 percent expect to add jobs, 17.5 percent will eliminate them), the sixth straight month in 2009 that hiring will exceed firing in manufacturing. In the service sector, a net total of 18.8 percent of companies will add jobs in December 2009 (28.0 percent expect to hire, 9.2 percent will cut jobs), the eighth straight month that the hiring rate will exceed the layoff rate in that sector in 2009.

Employment Expectations	Manufacturing	Service
Hiring will surpass layoffs in December in manufacturing and services, and the activity is also ahead of December 2008’s pace.	+21.6	+27.9
Recruiting Difficulty	Manufacturing	Service
In November, manufacturers had slightly less recruiting difficulty, while the service sector had increased difficulty landing top talent compared with a year ago.	-1.4	+10.7
New-Hire Compensation	Manufacturing	Service
For the 14th straight month, the rate of increase for new-hire compensation dropped in both sectors in November.	-1.2	-1.7

Source: SHRM Leading Indicators of National Employment (LINE), shrm.org/line.

A net total of 2.5 percent of respondents in the manufacturing sector also reported increases in exempt vacancies in November 2009 (16.1 percent reported increases, 13.6 percent reported decreases). This difference of 14.1 is an increase from November 2008 and is the fourth consecutive month that net exempt vacancies are higher than those of the same month in 2008. Likewise, a net total of 1.0 percent of respondents in the service sector reported increases in exempt vacancies in November (11.8 percent reported increases, 10.8 percent reported decreases). This is also the fourth consecutive month that exempt vacancies in services are higher than those of the same month in 2008.

A net total of 3.3 percent of manufacturing respondents reported that nonexempt vacancies increased in November 2009 (16.0 percent increased, 12.7 percent decreased). This represents a 22.1 point increase from November 2008 and could suggest that work is slowly being ramped up once again at some companies. Although the gains were small, the Federal Reserve reported that industrial production rose 0.1 percent in October 2009 and 0.7 percent in September 2009.

For nonexempt service positions, a net total of 5.2 percent reported increased vacancies in November 2009 (16.9 percent increased, 11.7 percent decreased). This also marked a significant increase from November 2008, when a net total of 16.0 percent of service companies reported decreases in nonexempt vacancies.

However, these large gains aren’t as good as they sound. “For the second consecutive month hiring expectations in manufacturing and services surpass levels of a year ago, but this may be more of a reflection of the very low hiring levels in the fall of 2008 rather than any significant return to health for the current job market,” said Jennifer Schramm, SHRM’s manager of workplace trends and forecasting.

The latest Conference Board Employment Trends Index tells a similar tale. Published Nov. 9, 2009, the index increased for the second consecutive month and was up 0.7 percent from the revised September 2009 figure. But the index is still down 13.2 percent from the same period in 2008. The increase in the November 2009 index was driven by positive contributions from four out of the eight tracked indicators, including initial claims for unemployment insurance, the number of temporary employees, industrial production and real manufacturing and trade sales.

"While layoffs have certainly declined in recent months, we still expect to see employers adding hours to their existing workforce before hiring will strongly increase," said Gad Levanon, senior economist at The Conference Board, in a statement regarding the organization’s November 2009 index results.

New-Hire Compensation

LINE shows that new-hire compensation is still down, though, because of the continuing high rate of unemployment and large pool of job seekers in the market. “The year-over-year comparisons of the rate of increase for new-hire compensation is still falling, another sign that overall the job market remains weak,” noted Schramm.

In the manufacturing sector, a net total of 1.1 percent of respondents said they would increase new-hire compensation in November 2009 (2.3 percent increased, 1.2 percent decreased). That is the lowest November response total in five years for manufacturers reporting increases to new-hire compensation.

In the service sector, a net total of 1.5 percent of companies raised new-hire compensation in November 2009 (2.8 percent increased, 1.3 percent decreased).

“Even after months of decline in the LINE new-hire compensation index, there continues to be little pressure on employers to ramp up compensation packages for new hires, indicating that there is still a large pool of job seekers willing to accept lower offers,” said Schramm.